Dilma sees a 46% percent reduction in support by state governors

April 23, 2014

Paulo Celso Pereira – O Globo, 4/23/2014

At two months and a half from the electoral campaigns, the main candidates for the presidency are in the final stages of assembling their support among Brazilian states. Today, 24 of the 27 governors have already publicly stated who they will support.  In comparing the current scenario with 2010, President Dilma Rousseff has clearly lost space among the local executive leaders. Four years ago, Dilma had the support of 19 of the 27 governors, representing 75.3 million voters. This year, so far, the president has only secured the support of 13 governors, who rule over 55.7 million voters – a reduction of 46% percent – representing a decreased influence over approximately 20 million voters.

Read full article in Portuguese here. 

PSDB will launch the presidential campaign of Aécio Neves on June 14, in SP

April 23, 2014

Erich Decat – O Estado de S. Paulo, 4/22/2014

During a National Executive meeting of the Brazilian Social Democratic Party (PSBD), members of the party’s leadership set June 14th as the date for the official launching of the presidential campaign of Senator Aécio Neves (MG). The event will take place in São Paulo, the largest constituency in the country, governed for over twenty years by the Social Democratic Party.

Read full article in Portuguese here.

Brazil’s Campos targets taxes, Petrobras to boost economy

April 17, 2014

Brian Winter & Jeferson Ribeiro – Reuters, 4/17/2014

Eduardo Campos, the centrist former state governor running third in Brazil‘s presidential race, plans to lower the tax burden and set a formula to automatically raise fuel prices at state-run oil company Petrobras if he wins the October election.

In a wide-ranging interview, Campos defended those and other reforms championed by Brazil’s business community, which has largely soured on left-leaning President Dilma Rousseff after three-plus years of slow economic growth.

Recent polls show Rousseff with a clear lead as she seeks a second term. She has around 40 percent support thanks to strong backing from poorer Brazilians who are happy with government welfare programs and unemployment still at record lows.

Read more…

Brazil socialist kicks off presidential campaign

April 15, 2014

Paulo Trevisani – The Wall Street Journal, 4/14/2014

Socialist politician Eduardo Campos on Monday kicked off his outsider tilt at becoming Brazil’s next president, the first salvo in a campaign that will likely focus on the economy as a potential weakness for incumbent President Dilma Rousseff.

Mr. Campos, who recently stepped down as governor of Pernambuco state in northeastern Brazil, confirmed he will head the ticket for the Brazilian Socialist Party, or PSB, while former environment minister Marina Silva will be his vice presidential running mate.

“Brazil needs to discuss the economy. We can’t grow at just 1%. We still have too much inequality,” Mr. Campos told a crowd of around 700 supporters at a hotel in the capital of this nation of 200 million people.

Read more…

Presidential elections in Brazil: which ADRs to watch

March 4, 2014

Louie Grint – Daily Finance, 3/3/2014

Adding to the uncertainty that most emerging markets are experiencing, a local event is stirring up volatility in Brazilian stocks. Presidential and legislature elections will take place in the country in October, and three candidates have real chances of taking office. The favorite is current President Dilma Rousseff, who is running for re-election, and then we have Aecio Neves and Eduardo Campos.

How does this matter to Brazilian ADRs?
A key point here is the degree of government intervention. Investors sense that if President Dilma Rousseff is re-elected, government intervention will continue, damaging companies’ profitability level. The other two candidates are seen as more market-friendly, and they still have a chance, especially with the current slowdown in the economy. So let’s see how three ADRs are performing.

Low exposure
First, here’s a Brazilian forestry leader and the world’s largest producer of hardwood market pulp, Fibria Celulose . It has an annual production capacity of approximately 5.3 million tons.

Read more…

2014 Elections

February 28, 2014

Sergio Fausto, O Estado de S. Paulo, 2/28/2014

Challenges abound for the next presidential term.  There are several symptoms indicating that the “new development model,” the “new paradigm of the political economy,” or all the other pompous names one wishes to assign to the policies of the current government, have not produced the expected results. There is a widespread feeling both here and abroad that we are improvising and kicking the can down the road. For how long will this last?

Given this situation, the following question is raised:  Will the candidates for the Presidency present political platforms that allow the voter to understand their vision with regards to these challenges and learn about the political choices each one intends to make to address them? Or  will we once again watch, as per the norm in recent disputes, a campaign devoid of programmatic content, reduced to propaganda based on real or alleged personal  positive attributes of the candidates and vague proposals of distributing more benefits (fancifully without costs and without sacrificing any other desirable goal)?

It is true that political platforms must be translated into more accessible language to ordinary voters, and that in order for a campaign to be successful, it must mobilize feelings around a simplified driving idea. Or such is the conventional political wisdom in Brazil. This notion, however, not only inhibits voters from being more informed, but also weakens the mandate of the government elected by the voters.

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Brazil’s Rousseff will change course if re-elected: former central bank director

February 20, 2014

Walter Brandimarte – Reuters, 2/18/2014

A former director at Brazil’s central bank said he expects President Dilma Rousseff to make key changes in macroeconomic policy, including cuts in government spending, if she gets re-elected for a second term later this year.

Paulo Vieira da Cunha, who was on the bank’s board from 2006 to 2008, said he also expects that after the election Rousseff will replace Finance Minister Guido Mantega, who has been heavily criticized by investors for overly optimistic economic forecasts and what they see as accounting gimmicks in the country’s budget.

Vieira da Cunha called for a return to the pragmatic style of former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who was elected as a left-winger but was widely regarded as a pro-growth and pro-business president.

Read more…

The richest politicians in Brazil

February 4, 2014

Anderson Antunes – Forbes, 2/3/2014

As in the rest of the world, Brazilians who become politicians are invariably wealthy, or become wealthy, before they serve in public office. But many build their fortunes through questionable means, and, not surprisingly, as a result Brazilians have developed a sentiment of distrust towards politicians.

Half a year after demonstrators climbed onto the roof of Brazil’s Congress in Brasilia, the country’s capital, demanding a clean-up of political deadwood and an end to corruption, the relationship between the Brazilian people and its leaders remains strained. The protests initially began as a public uproar against a hike in bus fares in several major Brazilian cities, and were briefly called a “revolution” by more enthusiastic observers.  Ultimately they were demonstrations against politicians.

Brazilian politicians are among the highest paid and least productive in the world, not to mention some of the most corrupt as well. Political scandals have become so usual in Brazil that many people are satisfied to vote for politicians who notoriously and unashamedly steal from public funds. “Steals but does [something],” goes the saying here in Brazil.

Read more…


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