June 17, 2013
Otaviano Canuto- Huffington Post, 06/17/2013
Brazil’s GDP performance has been lackluster since the post-crisis rebound in 2010. Prospects for 2013 look a little better: unemployment rates have remained low, and data from the first quarter of the year suggest improving growth rates. Investment also rose ahead of consumption, which may indicate a more balanced growth pattern (see Chart 1).
And yet the sharp downfall of production, investment and exports within the Brazilian manufacturing sector over the past two years means something deeper is at play.
No one can argue that Brazil had a good ride, with a long spell of economic growth. Poverty rates and income inequality have diminished steadily now for more than a decade, with labor market dynamics playing a major role, along with targeted social policies and a steady rise in access to education. However, some of the economic drivers from last decade are clearly exhausted.
June 10, 2013
Huffington Post, 06/09/2013
BRASILIA, Brazil — A new poll shows Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff has suffered her biggest drop in popularity since she took office in 2011.
The Datafolha survey finds 57 percent of respondents giving positive marks to Rousseff’s government, down from 65 percent in March. Her government received a negative rating from 9 percent of respondents, with the rest giving the government a regular rating or not responding.
About half of those surveyed said they were worried about inflation, while 36 percent said they had unemployment concerns, both up from the March survey.
February 26, 2013
Gabrielle Coppola & Josue Leonel – Bloomberg, 02/26/2013
Brazil’s swap rates dropped as the unemployment rate rose in January more than forecast, bolstering speculation policy makers will refrain from increasing borrowing costs amid tepid economic growth.
Finance Minister Guido Mantega said in New York that February inflation has been more “benign” and that the government has no plans to change the transactions tax known as IOF. The central bank will decide next week whether to hold the target rate at a record low 7.25 percent for a third meeting to support the economy even as inflation has exceeded the 4.5 percent midpoint of its target range for more than two years.
Swap rates on the contract due in January 2015 decreased five basis points, or 0.05 percentage point, to 8.42 percent at 1:43 p.m. in Sao Paulo. The real slid 0.4 percent to 1.9897 per U.S. dollar, paring its advance in February to 0.1 percent.
July 26, 2012
Paulo Prada and Walter Brandimarte – Reuters, 07/26/2012
(Reuters) – Brazil’s civil servants haven’t gotten President Dilma Rousseff’s message.
A slowing economy, dwindling tax revenue and falling demand for the country’s commodity exports mean the government must tighten its belt, she argues. But customs workers, university professors and myriad other federal employees are staging strikes across the country, pushing for salary increases worth 92 billion reais ($45.3 billion).
On Thursday, Brazil’s statistics agency, normally a clockwork conveyor of economic data, postponed the release of June unemployment figures because of striking statisticians.
July 26, 2012
(Reuters) – The release of Brazil’s unemployment rate for June was postponed due to a civil servants’ strike, the national statistics agency IBGE said on Thursday.
The IBGE did not say when it would release the monthly indicator, which is key to gauge the impact of the current economic slowdown on the country’s job market and to assess the likelihood of an economic rebound in coming months.
The strike delayed the analysis of data for the metropolitan area of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil’s second-largest city and host of the 2016 Olympic Games. Data on the state of the job market of five other urban areas were released.
July 23, 2012
(Reuters) – Brazil’s economy added a net 120,440 payroll jobs in June, the labor ministry said on Monday, fewer than the number of jobs added the previous month and in June 2011, as a slowdown in the local and global economy begins to weigh on the labor market.
Brazil was expected to add 151,000 jobs in June, according to a Reuters poll.
Job creation has fallen in the last two months as a lackluster manufacturing sector leads factories to hire fewer workers.
June’s result was the worst for the month since 2009, when the country was still struggling with the fallout of the global financial crisis. The economy added 139,679 jobs in May and 215,393 jobs in June of 2011.
May 24, 2012
Josue Leonel and Blake Schmidt – Bloomberg BusinessWeek, 05/24/2012
Yields on Brazilian interest-rate futures rose after a report showed unemployment unexpectedly fell in April, encouraging speculation the central bank will slow the pace of cuts in borrowing costs.
“This means worker income will stay at high levels and could keep pressure on prices of services, limiting the expected fall in inflation,” said Newton Rosa, chief economist at Sulamerica Investimentos, in a phone interview from Sao Paulo.
The real dropped toward a three-year low after rising yesterday the most in seven months as the central bank auctioned currency swaps for the third day in a week to curb swings in the exchange rate.
April 26, 2012
Silvio Cascione – Reuters, 04/26/2012
Brazil’s jobless rate rose slightly more than expected in March but still marked a record low for the month, adding evidence that the local labor market remains strong to underpin a nascent economic recovery.
Brazilian unemployment rate rose to 6.2 percent in March before seasonal adjustments, from a previously reported 5.7 percent in February, the government’s statistics agency IBGE said on Thursday.
The unemployment rate had been expected to rise to 6.0 percent, according to the median forecast of 19 economists surveyed by Reuters. The estimates ranged from 5.8 percent to 6.1 percent.
April 3, 2012
Adrian Saldanha – Financial Post, 04/03/2012
Brazil is home to one of the world’s fastest-growing emerging markets. From commodities to food exports to aircraft manufacturing to oil exploration, the South American powerhouse is experiencing an unprecedented economic boom.
The flourishing economy has provided Brazil with an enviably low unemployment rate. But growth has also presented the country with some big challenges – and education may be the biggest. Brazil’s hot job market is attracting plenty of skilled workers from outside the country’s borders. But Brazil is only now emerging from great poverty and inequality, and its public education system has so far been unable to produce enough skilled labour to meet the demand.
“Businessmen will say to you that it’s the biggest problem we have,” says Dr. Helen Joyce, Brazil bureau chief for The Economist. “[They] cannot pick qualified staff – the labour turnover is horrendous here.”
March 22, 2012
Silvio Cascione – Reuters, 03/22/2012
Inflation in Brazil slowed much more than expected in the month to mid-March, reinforcing the central bank’s case for aggressive interest rate cuts to stimulate the economy after it nearly fell into recession in the second half of 2011.
But the lowest unemployment rate for February on record signalled the relief in inflation may be short-lived, as services costs may rise even faster than overall inflation as the economy reacts later this year to the heavy stimulus.
Brazil’s benchmark IPCA-15 inflation index rose 0.25 percent in the month to mid-March, government statistics agency IBGE said on Thursday.