November 18, 2013
Francisco Marcelino – Bloomberg, 11/17/2013
Brazil’s central bank President Alexandre Tombini didn’t see any shortage of foreign currency in the country’s spot market in the week the real declined to a two-month low.
The nation and other emerging markets face a “sell-off” because of “interest rate normalization” in advanced economies, Tombini said in a speech delivered in Santiago on the evening of Nov. 15 and published on the Central Bank of Brazil’s website yesterday. The world’s second-biggest emerging economy after China is “providing currency hedge for the private sector” with an $100-billion intervention program for 2013, Tombini said.
Brazil’s real has fallen 5 percent since Oct. 31, when the government said its budget deficit widened to the largest in almost four years on concern about a credit rating downgrade. On Nov. 13, the currency dropped to 2.3341 per dollar, the weakest since Sept. 4.
October 16, 2013
Patricia Rey Mallén – International Business Times, 10/14/2013
As the United States holds its breath waiting for the resolution on the shutdown, so does Latin America. The fiscal crisis that began two weeks ago with the closing of the U.S. government and could culminate in a U.S. debt default in a few days could have disastrous consequences for the United States’ southern neighbors, hurting the currency exchange rates and weakening the region’s growth.
The U.S., still Latin America’s largest trade partner and investor, must decide whether it will raise the debt ceiling, currently at $16.7 trillion, or suspend payments to bondholders. If that were to happen, possibly as soon as October 17, the world economy would suffer another blow, starting in Latin America and the Caribbean.
“The region is in a very complex situation due to the fiscal crisis and the shutdown,” Colombian financial analyst Juan Alberto Pineda told financial newspaper El Economista América. “The signals that are coming out [of Washington] do not look positive for Latin American exports, or an exchange rate that allows the region to compete in global trade.”
February 13, 2013
Tom Murphy – The Wall Street Journal, 13/02/2013
SAO PAULO–The Brazilian real ended active trading Wednesday slightly stronger against the Friday close in thin post-holiday volume.
The real ended active trading at BRL1.9642 to the dollar, stronger from the Friday close of BRL1.9698, according to Tullett Prebon via FactSet. Brazilian markets were closed Monday and Tuesday for the annual Carnival festivities.
Traders said there was little pressure from either side of the market Wednesday, with the real drifting to a stronger position on U.S. dollar inflows from foreign investors, mainly in Brazilian stocks, and from overseas bond issues by Brazilian companies.
December 26, 2012
Ney Hayashi, Patricia Lara – Bloomberg, 12/26/2012
Brazil’s real rallied the most in the world as the central bank intervened to stem the currency’s drop and contain inflation in Latin America’s biggest economy.
The real advanced to a six-week high as the central bank sold $1.8 billion of currency swaps at two auctions and agreed to lend as much as $2 billion in foreign-exchange credit lines. Swap rates fell as speculation eased that policy makers will boost the target lending rate, known as the Selic, to cap consumer prices.
The real jumped 1.2 percent to 2.0557 per U.S. dollar at 4:22 p.m. in Sao Paulo, the strongest on a closing basis since Nov. 12. The gain was the biggest among all of the world’s currencies tracked by Bloomberg. The real pared its drop in 2012 to 9 percent after falling on Nov. 30 to a three-year low of 2.1360. Swap rates on the contract due in January 2014 fell three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 7.14 percent.
May 18, 2012
Kenneth Rapoza – Forbes, 05/18/2012
Brazil’s currency, the real, has gone from one of the best performing foreign currencies against the U.S. dollar, to the worst in a matter of three months. The real was as strong as R$1.65 in late February only to fall below R$2 to the dollar last week. It is currently trading around R$2.03 in the spot market on Friday.
Finance Minister Guido Mantega said the currency at these levels, near two to one, are better for the Brazilian economy, especially exporters who have to compete with lower cost rivals in Argentina and China. At the corporate level, the bouncy BRL makes it harder for companies to know where to hedge their bets on the forex. Is it wiser to assume the average BRL is R$1.95 or R$2.20 this quarter? Making those positions becomes costly and could be devastating if the bets are wrong.
In 2008 and 2009, two major Brazilian companies — Sadia and Aracruz — folded because of a failed forex hedging strategy.
February 18, 2011
Costa Paris, Kanga Kong – The Wall Street Journal, 02/18/2011
Brazil and India will join the U.S. in putting pressure on China to let its currency appreciate at a faster pace during meetings of finance ministers and central bankers from the group of 20 leading economies, an official at a G20 government said Friday.
“The three countries have formed an unofficial pact to express their disappointment,” said the official.
Better coordination of global monetary policies is one of the hot-button issues on the table at the G20 meetings Friday and Saturday. Central to the talks is the Chinese currency, the yuan, which many of China’s trading partners complain has been …
April 22, 2010
Geoff Dyer – Financial Time, 04/21/2010
China is facing growing pressure from other developing countries to begin appreciating its currency, providing unexpected allies for the US in the diplomatic tussle over Beijing’s exchange rate policy. Speaking ahead of a meeting of finance ministers and central bank heads from the Group of 20 countries which starts on Thursday in Washington, Indian and Brazilian central bank presidents have made the most forceful statements yet by their countries about case for a stronger Chinese currency.
While most of the public pressure on China has come from the US, the comments underline that a number of developing economies feel that China’s dollar peg has imposed costs on their economies. Henrique Meirelles, head of the Brazilian central bank, said that a stronger Chinese currency was “absolutely critical for the equilibrium of the world economy”. Duvvuri Subbarao, governor of the Reserve Bank of India said that an undervalued renminbi was creating problems for countries, including India.
October 9, 2009
Luciana Lopez and Anurag Joshi-Reuters, 10/09/09
Brazil’s real and India’s rupee should hold firm into 2010 as investors look to emerging markets for growth instead of developed economies, a Reuters poll of BRIC nations’ currencies showed on Thursday.
Brazil’s currency, the real BRBY, is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range and trade at 1.76 per dollar, near current levels, a year from now, according to the median of around 50 forecasts taken for that currency.
The Indian rupee INR=IN will end the 12-month period at 45.3 per dollar, compared with a little over 46 to the dollar currently, according to the median of around 40 forecasts.