Datafolha reveals technical tie between Dilma and Aécio continues [PORTUGUESE]

October 22, 2014

Paula Laboissière – EBC Agência Brasil, 10/22/2014

A Datafolha poll released today (10/22) reveals the PT candidate (Workers’ Party) for reelection, Dilma Rousseff, has 47% of voter intentions. Aécio Neves, of the Social Democratic Party (PSDB), has 43%. Considering the approximate margin of error of two percentage points, the two continue to be technically tied. In the previous poll, Dilma had 46% and Aécio had 43%.

Blank and null votes were 6% of the total, while 4% are still undecided. Considering the valid votes (excluding the blank, null or undecided votes), Dilma has 52% and Aécio 48%, which again indicates a technical tie within the margin of error. In the previous poll, the estimates for the candidates were the same – 52% and 48%, respectively.

The survey detected an increase in the population’s interest in the race: 50% of those interviewed said they had a large interest in the election. At the end of August, it was 39%.

Read more [in Portuguese]… 


Brazil Stocks Sink As Jim Chanos Slams Petrobras

October 22, 2014

Kenneth Rapoza – Forbes, 10/21/2014

Sometimes all it takes is a celebrity investor to say something bad about a market and the investor riff-raff go running for the door. On Monday, famed investor and regular CNBC guest Jim Chanos said Brazilian state owned oil company was not an investment, but an investment scheme. He was referring to what most Petrobras watchers already know — that the company is used by the government as a revenue stream, and as a means to control inflation as it keeps a lock on gasoline prices.

Chanos said this on a day when Petrobras shares had down their usual mega-drop, falling 6% in a day. Less than 12 hours later, the stock opened 6% lower on Tuesday following Chanos’ guidance. He’s laughing all the way to the bank this week.

And while every broker and trader on the Bovespa floor in São Paulo needs something to tell newswire reporters about the wild drop in Brazilian equities today, it is very unlikely that the recent poll by Datafolha showing incumbent Dilma Rousseff neck and neck with challenger Aécio Neves is any reason for investors to sell Brazil. Business Insider gets it. Linette Lopez wrote in a headline today that Chanos Tanked Brazil.

Read more…


Brazil’s Rousseff pulls ahead of Neves as election nears

October 22, 2014

Anthony Boadle – Reuters, 10/22/2014

Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff pulled ahead of opposition candidate Aecio Neves in another poll on Wednesday and looks like a slight favorite heading into what is expected to be the country’s tightest election in decades.

The Datafolha poll was the fourth in three days to show Rousseff approaching Sunday’s runoff vote with a slight edge over Neves, who had stirred investor enthusiasm by promising business-friendly policies to revive a sluggish economy.

Brazil’s stocks and currency have sold off this week as Neves lost momentum in a race that he was recently leading. The benchmark Bovespa stock index hovered above a four-month low on Wednesday, and the real seesawed near its weakest level since 2008.

 

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Brazilians Are Shocked, Shocked at Corruption!

October 21, 2014

Antonio Prata – The New York Times, 10/21/2014

We Brazilians suffer from a curious cognitive dysfunction, which occurs with the same frequency in our population as lactose intolerance does among the Japanese, or the inclination for punning among the English. We have the ability to be outraged by corruption, while engaging in our own petty versions of it.

As the second round of presidential voting approaches on Sunday, this evil is spreading like an epidemic. In bars, on the streets and on social networks, advocates of Dilma Rousseff, the Workers Party candidate for re-election, and Senator Aécio Neves, of the Brazilian Social Democracy Party, never tire of reminding us of the “robberies” that their rivals commit.

Workers Party supporters cite the re-election scandal in which Social Democrats were accused of bribing congressmen to approve a constitutional amendment allowing Fernando Henrique Cardoso to compete again for the presidency in 1998. Social Democrats’ supporters mention the “Mensalão,” a case in which congressmen allied with the Workers Party regularly received money diverted from Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s illegal campaign contributions. Those not involved in the party squabbles tend to blame all the politicians, as if the politicians were a separate species, able to corrupt our reputable citizens.

Read more… 


Neck & neck Brazil presidential race casts doubts on Mercosur, BRICS

October 21, 2014

Mauricio Saverese – RT, 10/21/2014

About a year ago everyone expected an easy ride for President Dilma Rousseff in her reelection campaign. Now, in the final week of Brazil’s election season, she is technically tied with opposition’s Aécio Neves.

About 20 percent of voters, who reject both candidates or seem too tired of politics to show up on October 26, are hearing desperate claims from the incumbent and her antagonist. It is likely Brazilians only know what will happen after the last vote is counted. That uncertainty makes the country’s future a big mystery. And that includes a big chunk of South America’s powerhouse foreign policy.

Neither Rousseff nor Neves want to give away much of what they intend to do if victorious. But the president’s closest allies have given hints. Rousseff’s foreign advisor Marco Aurélio Garcia says “South America is a big asset” and insists Mercosur – the region’s free trade zone – must be strong to keep Brazil’s position as a Latin American spokesman. Neves’ aide Rubens Barbosa, a former ambassador to Washington, says Brazil does better by imploding Mercosur (which includes Venezuela, Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay), so there is a deal with the European Union and diplomacy that is friendlier to the US.

Read more… 


Brazil Fixated as ‘Human Bomb’ Revelations Rock Elections

October 21, 2014

Sabrina Valle and Juan Pablo Spinetto – Bloomberg Businessweek, 10/20/2014

When in April 2012 Paulo Roberto Costa was eased out of his job as the refinery chief for Brazil’s Petroleo Brasileiro SA (PETR4), the state-run oil giant, it was treated as a routine shakeup, with Chief Executive Officer Maria das Gracas Foster praising him as a “dear colleague” who would be “hard to replace.”

Costa, who was also a company director, seemed unruffled. Within months, he had set up a consulting company in Rio de Janeiro’s up-and-coming Barra de Tijuca beach district, with ambitions to raise about $120 million to build a shipyard and marine repair terminal.

This would be a family affair. During a champagne party to celebrate, he showed reporters the tidy office –- holding mementos from his 35 years at the company known as Petrobras –- that he said his wife had decorated and that he planned to share with one of his two daughters who would work alongside him.

Read more… 


Rousseff Gains Edge as Brazil Polls Point to Photo Finish

October 21, 2014

Anna Edgerton – Bloomberg, 10/21/2014

Brazil’s President Dilma Rousseff gained support over opposition candidate Aecio Neves even as the race remains in a dead heat less than a week before the runoff, according to a Datafolha poll published yesterday.

Rousseff has 46 percent support and Neves has 43 percent, according to the Datafolha poll taken yesterday and released on Globo TV. In the last Datafolha poll published Oct. 15, Rousseff had 43 percent to 45 percent for Neves. Rousseff of the Workers’ Party won 42 percent in Oct. 5 first-round vote, compared to 34 percent for Neves of the Brazilian Social Democracy Party.

The two candidates have clashed over the economy, consumer prices and corruption as polls conducted by Ibope, MDA and Vox Populi also show them statistically tied ahead of the Oct. 26 runoff. While Neves pledges to slow inflation to target and boost growth, the incumbent says her opponent’s policies threaten record-low unemployment rates and social welfare spending. Yesterday’s poll shows Rousseff’s continued attacks on Neves are luring voters, even if those same voters would prefer to hear proposals, according to Thiago de Aragao, a partner and director of strategy at Arko Advice.

Read more… 


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