November 4, 2013
Adriana Arai, Marisa Castellani & Arnaldo Galvao – Bloomberg, 11/04/2013
Brazil plans to reduce lending by its development bank by about 20 percent next year to shore up finances after posting the biggest budget deficit in almost four years, fueling speculation the nation’s credit rating may be cut. Local swap rates fell.
Finance Minister Guido Mantega said in an interview that state lender BNDES will provide about 150 billion reais ($66.6 billion) in new loans in 2014, compared with an estimated 190 billion reais this year. That would bring BNDES credit a little below 2012 levels. The government will freeze BNDES lending to states and municipalities, unwind tax breaks on consumer goods and keep current expenditures under control, the minister said.
“With respect to state banks, we will reduce stimulus,” Mantega said at his Sao Paulo office on Nov. 1. Lending “will be more focused and we will reduce subsidies.”
January 8, 2013
David Biller – Bloomberg Businessweek, 01/07/2013
Analysts covering Brazil lowered their forecast for growth this year and raised it for inflation, as the world’s second-biggest emerging market struggles to rebound from a slowdown that has lasted more than a year.
Brazil’s gross domestic product will expand 3.26 percent this year, according to the median estimate in a central bank survey of about 100 analysts published today, down from 3.3 percent the previous week. Inflation this year will reach 5.49 percent, up from the previous week’s estimate of 5.47 percent. Economists also boosted their 2012 inflation forecast for the fifth straight week to 5.73 percent from the previous estimate of 5.71 percent, the survey showed.
President Dilma Rousseff’s administration has injected a series of stimuli into Brazil’s $2.5 trillion economy, which economists forecast will grow this year the slowest among the BRIC group, which includes Russia, India and China. Meanwhile the central bank has cut the benchmark Selic rate by 525 basis points, the most of any Group of 20 nation, to a record 7.25 percent.
January 2, 2013
Economists cut their estimates for economic growth in Brazil to 0.98 percent this year, a central bank survey showed on Monday, highlighting the sharp slowdown of an economy that just a couple of years ago was an emerging market star.
The world’s No. 6 economy was expected to grow 1.0 percent this year in a poll released last week, a far cry from the 3.30 percent expansion predicted by economists surveyed by the central bank at the start of the year.
Still, economists see the Brazilian economy rebounding to grow 3.30 percent in 2013 after an avalanche of stimulus measures by the government of President Dilma Rousseff that includes dozens of tax breaks and subsidized loans.
December 17, 2012
Silvio Cascione – Reuters, 12/17/2012
Economists trimmed forecasts for Brazil‘s economic growth this year and next for the fifth straight week, a central bank survey showed on Monday.
The largest Latin American economy – and one of the fastest growing countries only two years ago — is now expected to expand just 1.00 percent this year, down from 1.03 percent seen in the prior week, according to the poll’s median forecasts.
Brazilian businesses have suffered from lacklustre investment levels, rising labour costs and a heavy tax burden. President Dilma Rousseff has offered several stimulus measures over the past year and according to media reports is studying further steps to revive growth.
December 4, 2012
Howard Schneider – The Washington Post , 12/03/2012
When the Brazilian economy began to stall last year, officials in Latin America’s largest country started pulling pages from the playbook of another major developing nation: China.
They hiked tariffs on dozens of industrial products, limited imports of auto parts, and capped how many automobiles could come into the country from Mexico — an indirect slap at the U.S. companies that assemble many vehicles there.
A large state-funded bank grew larger, steering cheap money to projects that rely on locally made goods and equipment rather than imports. Other rules and tax breaks for local products proliferated under President Dilma Rousseff’s “Bigger Brazil Program.” The latest statistics show continued sluggishness, with Brazil growing at an annual rate of about 2.4 percent, less than the United States.
September 10, 2012
Financial market analysts and economists have reduced their forecast for Brazil’s economic expansion this year for the sixth consecutive week, amid poor economic performance so far this year, according to the weekly central bank survey released Monday.
Analysts reduced their view for economic expansion for 2012 to 1.62% growth in gross domestic product, from growth of 1.64% the previous week.
Brazil’s gross domestic product expanded 0.5% in the second quarter compared with the second quarter of 2011. That was less than economists’ forecast for 0.7%, and the economy’s worst performance since contracting 1.5% in the third quarter of 2009. Brazil’s GDP also advanced 0.4% in the second quarter compared with the first quarter, for an annualized growth rate of 1.6%.
August 31, 2012
David Biller – Bloomberg, 08/31/2012
Brazil’s economy in the second quarter showed signs that it’s turning the corner after a year of stagnation as government stimulus measures help offset the impact of the global crisis.
Gross domestic product expanded 0.4 percent from the previous three months, the fastest pace in a year, the national statistics agency said today. That compares with a median forecast of 0.5 percent growth in a Bloomberg survey of 51 analysts.
While that pace is four times the revised 0.1 percent first-quarter growth, economists say there’s little evidence of a strong recovery. With industrial output falling amid Europe’s debt crisis and weaker demand from China for Brazil’s exports, tax breaks to spur consumption won’t be enough to ensure that growth this year exceeds that of the U.S. and Japan, according to Bloomberg surveys of economists. Brazil’s economy grew at an annualized pace of 1.64 percent in the April-June period.
August 20, 2012
Russian GDP growth in percentage terms surpassed Brazil in the first half of the
year. And while this is no surprise, and the market still prefers Brazil’s diverse economy over Russia’s any day of the week, Brazil is now dead last in terms of economic growth in the big four emerging markets.
Russian statistical agency, Rosstat, said the economy grew 4.4 percent in the first half, on par to what the government is hoping for by year’s end. Meanwhile Brazil’s economy grew by around 1 percent in the first half of the year. India is also sluggish, growing under 6 percent and China’s GDP is consistently being revised downward from 8 percent for the year to around 7.5 percent to 7.9 percent by most economists estimates. In April, the Russian Economic Development Ministry cut its forecast for Russia’s economic growth in 2012 from 3.7 percent to 3.4 percent, suggesting expectations for a worsening second half.
August 20, 2012
Matthew Malinowski – Bloomberg, 08/20/2012
Analysts covering Brazil’s economy cut their 2012 growth forecast for the third straight week, even after recent signs that the economy may be picking up speed.
Brazil’s gross domestic product will expand by 1.75 percent, according to the median estimate in a central bank survey of about 100 analysts published today, down from last week’s estimate of 1.81 percent. The economists have reduced their growth estimates in 13 out of 15 weeks since May 7, and have held their estimates steady in the other two.
Since last August, President Dilma Rousseff’s administration has cut the benchmark Selic rate to a record low 8 percent, pressured commercial banks to increase lending and cut taxes on consumer goods to fuel growth in the world’s second-largest emerging market. Recent economic indicators signal that the measures may be taking effect.
August 15, 2012
Luciana Magalhaes – Wall Street Journal, 8/15/2012
SAO PAULO–Nothing will awaken the “animal spirits” of Brazilian business owners as much as broad reforms to reduce the country’s crushing tax burden, according to Josue Gomes da Silva, chief executive of the sprawling textile conglomerate Coteminas (CTNM4.BR).
“Brazil should structure a plan, to be implemented over a period of five or 10 years, with the clear goal of reducing the percentage of gross domestic product taken out every year by taxes,” Mr. Da Silva said in an interview. “Brazil should seek to gradually reduce its tax burden, now equal to about 36% of GDP, to levels more in line with other countries in similar stages of development.”
Mr. Da Silva belongs to a group of business leaders who recently advised Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff on ways to kick start the nation’s stalled economy. Brazilian GDP grew only 0.8% in the first quarter of 2012 against the same quarter a year earlier, with most economists predicting 2012 GDP performance of no better than 2%. GDP grew 2.7% in 2011.