Andre Soliani – Bloomberg, 04/16/2012
No central banker in the world’s top 10 economies has surprised analysts as frequently as Brazil’s Alexandre Tombini.Since taking office 15 months ago, Tombini set interest rates lower than economists expected in three out of 10 policy meetings, including an August reduction that all 62 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg failed to anticipate. Russia’s central bank, the second most unpredictable, defied economists in three out of 14 rate decisions in the same period.
So far, Tombini has been vindicated. Inflation in Brazil, at 5.24 percent in March, is easing at a pace faster than analysts forecast. While investors have speculated that Tombini may be yielding to political pressure to lower rates, his gloomy assessment of the world economy and risk-taking may prove correct, according to Citigroup Inc.’s Dirk Willer. Tombini will cut the benchmark rate by three-quarters of a point to 9 percent tomorrow, according to a Bloomberg survey of 55 analysts.