Datafolha indicates a draw in the second round between Dilma and Aécio

Brasil Post – 7/17/2014

Candidate for reelection in the race for the Planalto Palace, President Dilma Rousseff (PT) fluctuated two percentage points lower in the last study by Instituto Datafolha, revealed this Thursday (17), and she emerges now with 36% of intended votes. Second place in the first round simulation of the presidential elections, Aécio Neves (PSDB) remains with 20%, the same percentage obtained in the last study. Eduardo Campos (PSB), in turn, fluctuated from 9% to 8%.

For the first time, however, a technical draw was registered in a second round simulation. In a possible draw between Dilma Rousseff and Aécio Neves, the current president of the Republic would have 44% of the votes, compared to 40% for the Minas Gerais senator – there is a margin of error of two percentage points more or less. Yet with a possible second round against Eduardo Campos, Dilma would win 45% to 38%.

Based on Datafolha’s research, however, it is not possible to say if there would or would not be a second round if the race were today. Even though the rivals of Dilma, together, amounted to 36%, the same percentage as the PT candidate, the margin of error leaves open the possibility or not of the presidential election between at least two candidates.

Among the interviewees that disapprove of Dilma’s government, the percentage swayed from 26% to 29%, while between those that support her it went from 35% to 32%. This explains the negative change of the intended votes of the candidate in the first round and the agitation of the possible draws with the candidates of PSDB and PSB in the second round.

Despite still being able to beat the challenger in the first round, Dilma leads the rate of rejection, with 35%, three percentage points more than the last survey, completed between the 1st and 2nd of July. Next, is the candidate Pastor Everaldo, with 18%. Aécio has 17% and Campos, 12%.

In the survey commissioned by the newspaper Folha de S. Paulo in partnership with TV Globo, 5,377 electors in 223 municipalities were heard by Instituto Datafolha on Tuesday (15) and Wednesday (16).


Intended votes for president, in %

Dilma Rousseff (PT) – 36
Aécio Neves (PSDB) – 20
Eduardo Campos (PSB) – 8
José Maria (PSTU) – 1
Eduardo Jorge (PV) – 1
Luciana Genro (PSOL) – 1
Rui Pimenta (PCO) – 1
Eymael (PSDB) – 1
Levy Fidelix (PRTB) – <1
Mauro Iasi (PCS) – <1
Blank/null/no one – 13
Unknown – 14

Read original article here [in Portuguese].

Translated by Erica Kliment.

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