Brazil’s October retail sales unexpectedly rebound

David Biller – Bloomberg, 12/16/2015

Brazil’s retail sales rebounded in October, surprising analysts who expected a decline as the economy heads to its longest recession since 1931.

Sales jumped 0.6 percent, from a revised 0.3 percent decline in September, its first increase after eight straight drops, the national statistics agency said in Rio de Janeiro. All but one of 35 economists forecast sales would fall, according to a Bloomberg survey. The median forecast was for a 1.1 percent drop.

Brazil has sunk into recession as consumer confidence is undercut by above-target inflation, rising joblessness and the highest borrowing costs since 2006. The October jump is seen as an outlier by analysts at several banks, including BNP Paribas SA, Banco Bradesco SA, Banco Safra SA, and Banco Santander SA.

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