Here’s what the market really thinks about Brazil

Kenneth Rapoza – Forbes Magazine, 12/15/2015

Love her or hate her, Brazil’s beleaguered and possibly impeachable president, Dilma Rousseff, is here to stay. That’s the base-case scenario by economist at the vast majority of investment banks. In fact, investors would be hard pressed to find someone who thinks Dilma gets kicked out of office.

“We think this entire process lasts at least until August and that Dilma survives impeachment,” says Bruno Rovai, Brazil economist and fixed income analyst with Barclays Capital in New York.

Here’s another thing: austerity. Like a great abdominal work out, investors hate it…but they also love it. Austerity, like Dilma, is here to stay. Even the market’s favorite Brazilian of 21st century, ex-central banker Henrique Meirelles says that Finance Minister Joaquim Levy is doing what he can by cutting spending, erasing tax breaks, and increasing taxes.

Read more…


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