April 28, 2015
David Biller and Mario Sergio Lima – Bloomberg Business, 4/28/2015
Brazil’s March unemployment rate climbed to the highest level in three years as Latin America’s largest economy slips closer to recession amid rising interest rates and fiscal tightening.
The jobless rate rose to 6.2 percent from 5.9 percent a month earlier, according to data released by Brazil’s national statistics agency (IBGE). That was higher than the 6.1 percent median estimate from 32 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
Market reaction to the report was mixed. Swap rates fell, while the currency rose and stock futures pointed to a higher opening in Sao Paulo.
April 28, 2015
Bruce Douglas – The Guardian, 4/24/2015
Penetrating deep into the country’s vast interior on epic raids for people to enslave and mineral wealth to plunder, Brazil’s bandeirantes massively expanded the frontiers of the young state in the 16th and 17th centuries.
Today the legacy of these pioneers remains divisive, but their profound contribution to both Brazil’s continental dimensions and history of violence remains indisputable. And for the members of the libertarian Movimento Brasil Livre (MBL), or Free Brazil Movement, the legend of the bandeirantes is a political inspiration.
“They were self-made men from São Paulo, and they turned Brazil into the biggest country in Latin America,” said Renan Santos, the MBL’s national coordinator. “For sure, they were not a great example in terms of human rights.”
April 23, 2015
Paul Kiernan – The Wall Street Journal, 4/22/2015
Brazil’s state oil company Petróleo Brasileiro SA put a price tag on a corruption scandal that has thrown the country into political and economic turmoil, writing off $17 billion due to losses from graft and overvalued assets.
The disclosures were part of the first audited financial statements released by Petrobras in more than eight months.
Brazilian federal prosecutors since last year have been investigating allegations that the company’s suppliers conspired to overcharge Petrobras for major projects, funneling some of the illicit profit to former Petrobras executives and politicians in the form of bribes and illegal political donations.
April 21, 2015
Kenneth Rapoza – Forbes, 4/19/2015
Brazil’s most trusted official, Finance Minister Joaquim Levy, says beleaguered oil giant Petrobras has turned the page. And the upcoming release of Petrobras earnings will prove it.
“Petrobras has given us signs of reorienting itself to some degree, in certain segments of its business, in a way that is strategically forward looking. They changed management. They renewed the board of directors,” he said in an interview with Brazilian journalists this weekend.
What he said is nothing new. The market knows about new management, and of Petrobras asset sales. But what investors may read here in the tea leaves is that Levy is confident that Petrobras will produce its much-anticipated earnings report. Supposedly the board of directors will agree on a publishing date on Wednesday, April 22.
April 21, 2015
Ilan Goldfajn – Financial Times, 4/21/2015
I have just returned from abroad. It felt like déjà vu from a distant past. Explaining Brazil has become complex again. “I read about corruption accusations, popular protests, deficits and crises; what is happening in Brazil?” I was asked by an important investor. The answer inevitably tends to be long and full of Buts and Ifs.
Nevertheless, I will make an effort to summarize it here in a straightforward way. Brazil did not invest enough during the favorable commodity cycle. Policymakers did not recognize the end of the cycle in time. When they did, they tried to go back to a past that no longer existed. Now, Brazil must adjust everything at once to avoid a worse crisis. But markets are dynamic: with the recent depreciation of the real, there are already investors looking for opportunities. That is the reason Brazilian assets rebounded lately.
All Latin American economies – from Argentina and Venezuela to Chile and Peru – are experiencing declining growth. This is a sign of a common factor: the end of the favourable global cycle of commodity boom and growth in China and abundant capital flows to emerging markets. Corruption accusations and investigations are surfacing in many Latam countries such as Brazil and Mexico, but also in Chile, which signals that even the tolerance to such deviations is cyclical.
April 17, 2015
Joel Schectman – The Wall Street Journal, 4/16
Multinationals with operations in Brazil are making frightened calls to their lawyers, as the country’s spreading corruption scandal reaches more companies.
The bribery investigation known as “Operation Carwash,” which has already sent Brazil’s state-run Petroleo Brasileiro SAPBR +1.15% into a tailspin, is spreading across the country’s largest construction companies and its third largest bank. Brazilian prosecutors say shipbuilding arm of South Korean conglomerate Samsung paid bribes to a former executive at Petrobras. Brazilian prosecutors have also accused Swedish builder Skanska ABSKA-B.SK -2.11% of taking part in the corruption at Petrobras. Skanska didn’t respond to requests for comment. Samsung couldn’t be immediately reached for comment.
Brazilian investigators have said they are investigating large international firms that they believe have paid bribes, Reuters reported.
April 17, 2015
Walter Brandimarte – Reuters, 4/17/2015
Some investors are carefully betting that the recent selloff in Brazilian financial markets was overdone, pointing to signs that inflation is slowing and the government is getting its finances in order.
Many expect inflation will come down from its current 11-year high of 8.13 percent, thanks to the central bank’s interest rate hike cycle of 1.75 percentage points since October, as well as the economic slump’s effect on demand.
Meanwhile, state-run oil company Petrobras is expected to this month post financial statements that have been delayed by a huge corruption scandal, greatly reducing the risk of a major debt crisis that could have cost Brazil its investment grade credit rating.