March 6, 2015
Rogerio Jelmayer – The Wall Street Journal, 5/6/2015
Consumer prices in Brazil rose more than expected in February, putting the 12-month rate at the highest level in nearly 10 years and underlining one of the main challenges facing Latin America’s largest economy in the year ahead.
Brazil’s consumer-price index, the IPCA, was up 1.22%, compared with a rise of 1.24% in January, the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, or IBGE, said Friday.
The rolling 12-month IPCA increased 7.70% through February, up from 7.14% in January, remaining well above the 6.5% ceiling of the central bank’s target range. The 12-month figure marked the highest level since May 2005, when it reached 8.05%.
March 6, 2015
Alberto Nardelli – The Guardian, 3/6/2015
The more you look at Brazil’s fundamentals, the more shaky the country looks. And we are not talking about the defensive prowess of David Luiz here. It is the country’s economic backline that risks tumbling down like a set of dominoes.
When a Latin American economy is in trouble a good place to start is its inflation rate. Brazil’s is today running at 7.5%. While this is nowhere near the 2,000-3,000% of the early 1990s, when the price of everything went up several times a week, it is far higher than the central bank’s mid-point target of 4.5%.
On Wednesday, in an effort to bring inflation down, Brazil’s central bank raised interest rates to 12.75%, a six-year high.
March 3, 2015
Silvio Cascione – Reuters, 3/3/2015
Brazil’s central bank’s two-day policy meeting kicks off later on Tuesday with all bets placed on a fourth straight interest rate increase, despite growing consensus that the country is headed for its worst economic recession in 25 years.
The benchmark interest rate, currently at an already-high 12.25 percent, is expected by the wide majority of 48 economists polled by Reuters to reach the highest in six years at 12.75 percent. Other increases are in the pipeline, and some say the Selic rate could climb to as much as 13.75 percent this year.
Monetary tightening is just one side of Brazil’s all-out war on price rises. Finance Minister Joaquim Levy, tasked by President Dilma Rousseff to plug a growing budget deficit, has already frozen dozens of billions of dollars in government spending, removing one of the major pressures over consumer prices in recent years.
February 24, 2015
David Biller – Bloomberg Business, 2/24/2015
Brazil’s inflation in the month through mid-February quickened more than economists estimated, as the central bank continues to raise rates in the world’s second-biggest emerging market.
Inflation as measured by the benchmark IPCA-15 index accelerated to 1.33 percent from 0.89 percent a month earlier, the national statistics agency said on its website today. That was the fastest rate since February 2003 and above the median 1.30 percent forecast from 41 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Annual inflation sped up to 7.36 percent from 6.69 percent.
Policy makers in Brazil are caught between the fastest annual inflation in nearly 10 years and gross domestic product that analysts estimate will contract in 2015. The latter limits the scope for Finance Minister Joaquim Levy and central bank directors to tighten fiscal and monetary policy to slow above-target inflation, which is damping consumer confidence.
February 19, 2015
Martin Hutchinson – Wall Street Daily, 2/19/2015
Income investing has become more and more difficult as the world’s central banks have continued pursuing zero-interest rate policies.
When short-term money pays nothing and bond yields trend steadily downward, the prices of income stocks rise until only dangerous rubbish offers a decent yield.
However, there’s one country where shares with decent yields are easy to find, and there’s no force driving stock prices to unsustainable levels. Better yet, this country has been so unpopular among investors recently that the local market can now be rated a “Buy” – with a decent yield, to boot.
February 12, 2015
Paulo Sotero – The Huffington Post, 2/12/2015
Millions of Brazilians will sing and dance in the streets in the pre-lent festival of Carnaval starting this weekend. This year, however, there is no way to escape the harsh realities of a government paralyzed by division, scandals, and an economy on the verge of recession. The sharp increase of the inflation rate to 1.24 percent in the month of January, or 7.14 percent in the past 12 months — well above the Central Bank’s target limit of 6.5 percent — did not come as a surprise to Brazilians. According to a new survey, 86 percent of them believe prices will keep rising in 2015 as the government puts in place an austerity strategy described by President Dilma Rousseff in the first cabinet meeting of her recently inaugurated second term as “corrective” and “indispensable” to restore the country’s financial health. The expectation of continued price hikes will complicate the task of the team led by Finance Minister Joaquim Levy to stabilize the economy and restore confidence among Brazilian and foreign investors in the country’s capacity to resume sustainable growth in the years ahead. Some 90 percent of those surveyed said they expect salaries not to keep up with inflation, which implies rising social tension and trouble ahead within the government coalition led by the Workers’ Party (PT).
Brazilians’ overall perception of the economy has turned sharply negative, according to a telephone survey called Radar Ideia Popular conducted by Ideia Inteligência, with a sample of 78,222 people in 259 cities in all regions of the country from January 26 to February 1. Three quarters expect employment levels to worsen during the year in comparison with 2014, when record low unemployment served as a powerful campaign argument by President Rousseff. The negative perception on employment trends is more pronounced in the Southeastern states, Brazil’s economic powerhouse and home to the bulk of political opposition to the president, who won reelection last October by a narrow 3 percent margin: 81 percent expect the situation to get worse and only 15 percent said it will get better. A slightly more optimistic view prevails in the pro-government Northeastern region, where 30 percent see a rosier picture on employment, compared to 68 percent who are pessimistic. Nationally, there is strong pessimism on employment among the young, with two thirds of them expecting the job situation to deteriorate.
February 3, 2015
Paul Kiernan – The Wall Street Journal, 2/3/2015
Brazil’s industrial production contracted sharply in December and finished last year with its steepest decline since 2009, as rising interest rates, weak demand and waning confidence from consumers and businesses weighed on output.
Production declined 2.8% in December from November in seasonally adjusted terms, the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, or IBGE, said Tuesday.
Economists had expected a smaller drop of 2.4%, according to the median estimate in a survey by the local Agencia Estado newswire.