Wall Street, Washington, and Brazil

Julia E. Sweig – The World Post, 10/8/2014

Wall Street made its preferences known well before the first round: the markets wanted change. Anything but Dilma, and if that meant Marina Silva, then by god she would be molded into the right market-friendly container! Washington had a slightly more sanguine view of the Marina surge, but most close Brazil-watchers likewise seized on Marina as the Obama-esque “change agent” who, embodying the demands of the 2013 protests, might propel Brazil to the next phase of political reform.

Moreover, Marina’s sudden openness to agribusiness and trade deals, her gripping personal narrative, and her environmentalism suggested an opening for the Obama administration to re-kindle the near dormant embers of the bilateral relationship.

Surprise! Time to re-calibrate expectations and ask some questions. With Aécio Neves pulling in a respectable 34 percent of the vote, in an outlier scenario that he can draw enough for Marina’s votes to prevail over Dilma, what would a PSDB government signal to Wall Street and Washington?

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